61 Past, present, and future of red blood cells Historical RBC trends Trend/Theme Drivers/Factors Definition Example quote Future RBC demand will increase Aging populations and NCDs This sub-code describes how the aging population, due to their susceptibility to noncommunicable diseases which may warrant RBC products, will contribute towards increased demand. And the problem is that even...some of the modern therapy requires less blood but by the sheer number of more patients, we will definitely level this out, and there are some new therapies which have the adverse event of making the patient anemic or thrombocytopenic as well by the new therapies. Not by all, but by some, and therefore we will definitely see an increase. Future RBC demand will decrease but eventually stabilize This code describes future expectations of how RBC will stabilize due to the factors listed below. I think the fall in red cell use, I would expect it to bottom out. Minimum need This sub-code describes how the decrease of RBCs will stabilize to a ‘minimum’ amount due to the minimum need of patients, such as from trauma, hemoglobinopathy, etc. We certainly will have a long period that it [remains] at minimum--until the end that we find artificial blood products so that you really can produce it in a factory.. But that, I think, will not happen within 20 years. So we have a period of a minimum need. Cumulative effect of demographics This sub-code describes how the cumulative effect of social factors such as the rise of the aging population, the rise of affected migrant groups, may stabilize RBC demand. I think the fall in red cell use, I would expect it to bottom out. I think with these other pressures you talked about, with increasing populations, maybe more with communities that might have a greater need for blood if they’ve got inherited blood disorders. I think we may see a bottoming out of the constant fall.
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